张嘉琪,王超然,刘毅.基于LMDI的长江中下游城市群污染排放强度分析[J].中国环境管理,2017,9(5):64-68,76.
ZHANG Jiaqi,WANG Chaoran,LIU Yi.Emission Intensity of the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Belt Based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2017,9(5):64-68,76. |
| 基于LMDI的长江中下游城市群污染排放强度分析 |
| Emission Intensity of the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Belt Based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index |
| DOI：10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2017.05.064 |
| 中文关键词: 长江中下游城市群 迪氏对数指标分解法 污染排放强度 末端削减 技术工艺 |
| 英文关键词:urban agglomeration in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Belt Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index emission intensity end-of-pipe treatment technical craft |
| 基金项目:区域和行业发展战略环境评价财政专项（2110203）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 长江中下游城市群地区工业重化特征明显，工业水污染排放贡献超过10%，大气污染物占比更超过70%。本文采用迪氏对数指标分解法（LMDI）识别长江中下游城市群污染排放的主要影响因子，对长江中下游城市群重点行业COD、氨氮、SO2、NOx排放强度进行分析。将排放强度拆分为末端削减、技术工业和产品结构三个指标，分析2012—2020年和2020—2030年两个时间段内，对污染排放强度降低贡献度最高的影响因素。结果表明，末端削减和技术工艺对污染排放强度降低影响大，贡献值之和约为90%，两者分别代表末端处理技术对污染排放的削减程度，以及高附加值行业单位产值污染物产生水平；COD、SO2和氨氮的排放强度由末端削减和技术工艺共同作用，NOx的排放强度较高且未来末端削减水平进步小，未来需要重视该污染物的减排和治理。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The industrial system accounts more than 10% water pollutant and over 70% air pollutant in the urban agglomeration in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Belt, mainly with heavy industry and chemical industry. To identify the main influence factors of the emission intensity in the urban agglomeration in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Belt, this paper applies the method of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to analyze COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2 and NOx emissions for the local region and then decomposes the industrial population emission intensity into end-of-pipe treatment, technical craft and product mix. The results show that the reduction of emission intensity would be mainly relayed on endof-pipe treatment and technical craft in the two time periods (2012-2020, 2020-2030). They contribute almost 90% to the emission intensity, represent the level of pollutant reductions in end of pipe control and productive process respectively. The highest effects of COD, SO2 and ammonia nitrogen are controlled by end-of-pipe treatment and technical craft simultaneously. The mitigation and improvement of NOx should be renovated to cut down the high density and update the bad treatment. |
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